LIBRARY
GLO 410: Systems Thinking: Chapter 16: Scenario Technique
This guide for Systems Thinking provides students with links to references from the textbook Systems Concepts in Action in addition to other resources to help develop systemic thinkers.
Scenario Technique
"The concept of scenarios was drawn from the vocabulary of cinema (as a synonym for screenplay or script). Scenarios can be devised for companies, organizations, regions, or nation-states or larger entities such as the European Union or the United States. In strategic management, the scenario technique is applied to conceive at least three “alternative futures”: the “worst-case scenario,” the “best-case scenario,” and the most probable course of development. The point here is to obtain models for future risks and opportunities in support of foresight and provident action."-Systems Concepts in Action, Chapter 18
eBooks/ Articles
- Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe
European Spatial Planning Observation Network. 2007. This report presents several spatial scenarios, exploring alternative directions of possible trends and driving forces related to the future territorial development of the EU. - Rethinking the fifth discipline : learning within the unknowable
Flood, Robert L. 1999. It establishes crucial developments in systemic thinking in the context of the learning organisation, including creativity and organisational transformation. - Scenario Planning
Wade, Woody. 2012. It will introduce you to a planning method that can open your eyes to future changes and opportunities that might materialize, help you maximize your flexibility so you can compete effectively in different landscapes that may emerge, and prepare you not just for the future, but for several possible futures.
Introduction to Scenario Planning Technique
Web Resources
- Net MBA: Scenario Planning
Offers a history of Scenario Planning and a brief guide to it's application. - The Use and Abuse of ScenariosRoxburgh, Charles. 2009. Assumes an economics perspective. Focuses less on the method itself and instead provides a guide to the principles of Scenario Planning.
- Introduction to Scenario Planning
Conway, Maree. 2003. A lengthy but thorough PowerPoint on Scenario Planning for those who want to delve deep into the technique.
Examples/ Case Studies
- Exercise: Scenario Planning
Miesing, Paul. Van Ness, Raymond K. 2007. This example exercise for a lesson on Scenario Planning aims to guide students through the process from the perspective of a corporation.